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Super Bowl prospects post the Packers as 2-point favorites versus the Steelers with the total at 44.5.
What do recent trends tell us about the odds for Green Bay and Pittsburgh versus the Super Bowl betting prospects at the online sportsbook?
Favorites Stressed
Several years ago the favorites did quite well in the Super Bowl but since 1980 the favorites are just 19-11 straight up and a poor 12-16-2 versus the spread. The longshot has covered the last 3 Super Bowls, winning two of the 3 straight up. The community actually likes Green Bay in Super Bowl XLV but the recent trends point to taking the longshot Steelers. The Packers are the 10th distinct National Football Conference squad to play in the Super Bowl in the last 10 years. The Packers are the 4th squad to win 3 consecutive road games and reach the Super Bowl. Two of the earlier 3 won the Super Bowl. The Packers are the first number six seed from the National Football Conference to make it to the Super Bowl.
Point Totals
If Green Bay is presented to 30 points or less in the Super Bowl they’re likely in trouble. The last 16 Super Bowl favorites to score 30 points or less are 2-14-1 versus the spread. Let’s go one step further in terms of the winning point total. If a squad does not get to at least 21 points in the Super Bowl they nearly never win. If a squad does not get to at least 21 points in the Super Bowl they’re 1-20 straight up in the last 21 Super Bowls and a putrid 3-17-1 versus the point spread. Squads that get to 21 points or more have a pretty excellent chance of winning. With both Pittsburgh and Green Bay having excellent defenses it appears pretty likely that whoever gets to 21 points will win and cover Super Bowl XLV. Looking at the total, 5 of the last six Super Bowls have gone below the total in Super Bowl prospects and if it weren’t for a late Pittsburgh TD two years ago it will be six back to back. This season’s total of 44.5 is the lowest we have seen in the Super Bowl since Super Bowl XXXVIII.
National Football Conference Edge
In the past thirty Super Bowls, the National Football Conference is 19-11 straight up and 18-10-2 ATS. It should be noted though that in the past 13 Super Bowls that the National Football Conference is just 4-9 SU and 6-6-1 ATS. And this is the first time in the last 9 seasons that the National Football Conference is going to be favored in the Super Bowl.
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